Dear David, Tim, Ray, Jim and Quentin,
Thank you for doing such a terrific job! What a great contribution of thorough research. Thank you for participating in the first TechniTrader® Case Study.
Sincerely, Adrienne

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MORNING STAR STUDY HALL - WEEK 5 REVIEW

I agree with your assessment: solar energy is still in its infancy with a lack of standardization typical in the R&D and innovative stages of a new industry. This tells you that there is plenty of time to select long term stocks and near term, the price is likely to be volatile, relating to news items as solar moves to take front and center stage on Alternative Energy issues.

Already we are seeing a flock of unemployed people heading off to school to learn how to install solar panels so things are moving along.

Great work.

Martha
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MORNING STAR STUDY HALL - WEEK 5 ASSIGNMENT

#1. Tim
As far as FSLR dominating the market in the future...hmmm. I think they are moving in the right direction and are proactive with building new manufacturing facilities, but where the industry is headed and what new technologies will come to market in the next few years remains to be seen. There doesn't appear to be much standardization from application to application and I think until someone sets the standards and take over a controlling lead, solar energy will flounder around a bit more.

Companies, contractors and home owners won't really get behind a product until it's applications are more universal, replaceable and easy to get at your local hardware store - at least with that kind of mentality. Sort like Beta and VHS, Blue Ray and HD. Some one has to become the standard. Can FSLR take the lead? They seem to be more into the supply angle of the market with direction on major installations. All find and well, but it's never really going to take hold until it gets down to the grass roots level of the average Joe on the street dealing with home installation. I'm not quite sure how dedicated to that pursuit FSLR is at this time...especially with the economy in the state that it's in. Just some random thoughts for right now. I studied solar energy in college back in the mid seventies and designed and built some passive solar projects around the house/ranch I lived on at the time. It made a huge difference during the winter and I firmly believe in it's application, but it doesn't seem like solar energy as a hold has done much since then...not on a massive scale anyway. Tim

#2. Quentin
Thanks for the input Tim. I agree with much of your post. As a starting point for week 5, I will make a list of what I feel is positives and a list of what I feel are negatives. Then we can cut and paste as other input comes in or rewrite if times permit.

CONCLUSION:

POSITIVES FOR FSLR

1 FSLR Is the worlds largest manufacture of solar panels

2 FSLR uses cadmium sulfide and cadmium telluride in manufacturing of solar modules. They produce more output energy with the same amount of sunlight than traditional crystalline silicon PV cells. Both elements are byproducts of zinc and copper mining. They are readily available and in ample supply.
they are not a hazard to the environment.

3 FSLR can supply solar panels for huge open area ground anchored projects. Their largest installed project produces 500 mw of electrical power.

4 FSLR has a pre-funded recycling program where they will collect and recycle old FSLR solar panels.

5 FSLR warrants there solar panels for a 25 year life expectancy @ 80 % of rated power.

NEGATIVES FOR FSLR

1 Is way over $75 price guideline.

2 Has not finished its bottoming process.

3 Does not have a blue chip company partner.

4 Most of its top executives are fairly new to the company and there impact on the company is a question mark.

5 Only one of its top execs have a background in R&D. Only $11 million for its 2008 research and development budget.

6 Do not appear to be interested in producing home-owner stand alone system.

7 Poor public relations.

In all, I do not feel FSLR will be a dominate leader in solar energy industry. I get a feeling that FSLR management is complacent. They appear to be comfortable with current operations.

I personally feel research and development will play a very important part, if solar energy is to become competitive with other energy producing systems. Quentin

#3. Jim
With a price point that is still too high in my view, the solar industry is in need of a stronger “green” campaign to capture consumer dollars. There are toxicity and disposal issues with some companies. If FLSR is a non-polluter, they‘ve got an advantage and should sell this. Does the consumer want solar panels on roofs - yes, if energy ends up cheaper. At some point, creative contractors, roofing companies, installers, etc. can work on improving the unsightliness of such an item. By getting the forces of pricing, product development, and consumer awareness all working together, consumer appeal can expand in this industry to a must have senario. However, are we at this point just yet - no. Which company to invest in now..? I’ll continue to day trade them until the market is no longer hijacked by news media.
Jim

#4. David
FLSR has a good product. From the new trade journal in the space, it seems that it's closest competitor in high efficiency solar panels is SPWRA. David

Tim, Quentin, Jim, and David
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Quentina - nice job on week #4. Sorry I didn't get a chance to wade in last week - lots of craziness to deal with. Anyway, We should have our summary by Thursday so Martha can review on Friday? Something like that...

Good morning Morning Star class.

WEEK 5. Topic will FSLR be a dominate player in the future of solar energy?
I am interested in what you all think. How do we want to handle this?

When do we need to post 5? quentin